Indiana

The Hoosiers are 5–0 and No. 7, on a 21-game winning streak that goes back to the first week of the national-championship season. Curt Cignetti is 28–1 in regular-season games. The only sweat so far was a 29–23 Friday night against Northwestern. Then Saturday night at Rutgers looked like the team that won it all: 593 yards, Josh Hoover for 251 and four touchdowns, Turbo Richard for 204 in his first game back from an ankle injury, Lee Beebe Jr. for 122 more. The defense allowed nine first downs. They get on a plane for a noon kick in Lincoln — second road game in eight days — with Ohio State waiting in Bloomington the week after.

Nebraska is the best 5–0 that has not had to prove it against a team like this. It is the program’s best start since 2016, and every win has come by at least 18 points: Maryland 48–23 at home, Michigan State 31–13 on the road, and three nonconference blowouts before that. Anthony Colandrea, the Mountain West offensive player of the year at UNLV a year ago, has thrown for 1,142 yards, 13 touchdowns and two interceptions, and run for 249 more. Memorial Stadium is on a 411-game sellout streak. This is the first time the Huskers have hosted a defending national champion since 2006.

Indiana wants to run it. The Hoosiers are ninth nationally at 252.6 rushing yards a game, and Richard is at 9.3 a carry. Nebraska allows 100.6 on the ground, 30th — respectable, not a wall. The other way is the crack: Indiana is only 50th in pass-efficiency defense, and Colandrea to Kwazi Gilmer is a real throwing game. Hoover is the problem for everyone else. He is 76 of 107 for 1,101 yards, 15 touchdowns and zero interceptions. Indiana has one turnover all season. Nebraska’s pass-efficiency defense ranks 13th, and its third-down defense is second in the country at 21.3%. If the Blackshirts get Hoover into third-and-long, 11 a.m. has a puncher’s chance. If they don’t, the efficiency gap takes the air out of the place.

The hidden game is flags. Indiana is third nationally in fewest penalties, 3.4 a game and 27.6 yards. Nebraska is 123rd, at 8.6 penalties and 73.4 yards. In a game the computers see as a touchdown, that is a field-position tax. FOX is also bringing Big Noon Kickoff to campus. Nebraska is 0–7 in its Big Noon Saturday appearances, including a 49–14 home loss to Oklahoma the last time the show set up in Lincoln, in 2022. The early-week forecast called for sun and a high near 86. Hot, loud, and early.

The pick is Indiana 31, Nebraska 24. That is ESPN’s SP+ score, and it fits the shape of the matchup: Nebraska will score, because almost nobody has stopped either offense, and Indiana’s defense — 10.8 points a game, fifth nationally — plus Hoover’s clean sheet is the difference. FPI gives the Hoosiers 69%, their lowest win probability of the season, which is the compliment. The line has come in from about −9.5 to −7, and Nebraska is 4–1 against the spread while Indiana is 1–4. The upset is live. It is not the pick. A 31–24 game pushes −7, covers for Nebraska if the number is −7.5, and goes over 52.5.